黄金外汇投资 | 03 Accumulation/Distribution

发表于:2015-07-18 21:56 [只看楼主] [划词开启]

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集散指标(A/D)——Accumulation/Distribution 集散指标(A/D) 是由价格和成交量的变化而决定的。


成交量在价格的变化中充当重要的权衡系数。系数越高(成交量),价格的变化的分布就越能被这个技术指标所体现(在当前时段内)。  实际上,这个指标是另外一个更为普遍使用的能量潮指标成交量的变体。这两个
指标都用来通过衡量各自的销售成交量来确认价格的变化。  当离散指标增长时,就意味着积累(购买)了某一特定的证券,因为此时,占绝对份额的销售成交量与正在上升的价格趋势相关了。当该指标下降时,意味着分配(卖出)某一证券,此时在价格运动下降的同时,有更多的销售正在进行。  离散指标和证券价格之间的差异表明即将到来的价格变化。原则上,在这样的差异情况下,价格的趋势会向着该指标移动的方向顺时移动。因此,如果该指标增长时,证券的价格相应下降,我们因此可以预料到价格的回落。  图例见右图

2计算方法编辑

从该指标的当前值中添加或减去一定份额的当日交易量。收市价越接近当天最高价时,被添加的份额越大。收市价越接近当天最低价时,被减去的份额越大。如果收市价正好在当天最高和最低价格之间,那么这个指标值不变。
A/D = SUM[((CLOSE — MINIMUM) — (MAXIMUM — CLOSE))*VOLUME/(MAXIMUM — MINIMUM), N]
注解:  N — 在运算中使用的周期数量。


Accumulation Distribution Line is a volume-based indicator designed to measure the cumulative flow of money into and out of a security. It is a running total of each period's Money Flow Volume. 


Chartists can use this indicator to affirm a security's underlying trend or anticipate reversals when the indicator diverges from the security price.用来(1)确定潜在的趋势、(2)如果指标与价格背离时,用来预测反转
计算:
  1. Money Flow Multiplier = [(Close  -  Low) - (High - Close)] /(High - Low)    //权衡系数
  2. Money Flow Volume = Money Flow Multiplier x Volume for the Period
  3. ADL = Previous ADL + Current Period's Money Flow Volume
The Money Flow Multiplier fluctuates between +1 and -1. 
权衡系数在-1和+1之间浮动。
As such, it holds the key to the Money Flow Volume and the Accumulation Distribution Line. The multiplier is positive when the close is in the upper half of the high-low range and negative when in the lower half. 
如果收盘价在最高价与最低价中间位置偏上,Money Flow Multiplier为正,反之为负。
This makes perfect sense. Buying pressure is stronger than selling pressure when prices close in the upper half of the period's range (and visa versa). The Accumulation Distribution Line rises when the multiplier is positive and falls when the multiplier is negative.
 The multiplier is +1 when the close is on the high and -1 when the close is on the low. 
理解
The Accumulation Distribution Line is a cumulative measure of each period's volume flow, or money flow. A high positive multiplier combined with high volume shows strong buying pressure that pushes the indicator higher. Conversely, a low negative number combined with high volume reflects strong selling pressure that pushes the indicator lower. 
正的高的权衡系数与高成交量组合,表明买压很强,指数增加。负的低的权衡系数与高成交量组合,表明卖压很强,指数降低。
Money Flow Volume accumulates to form a line that either confirms or contradicts the underlying price trend. In this regard, the indicator is used to either reinforce the underlying trend or cast doubts on its sustainability.
根据指数情况,可以加强对当前走势的确认,或者对其可持续性提出质疑。
 An uptrend in prices with a downtrend in the Accumulation Distribution Line suggests underlying selling pressure (distribution) that could foreshadow a bearish reversal on the price chart. A downtrend in prices with an uptrend in the Accumulation Distribution Line indicate underlying buying pressure (accumulation) that could foreshadow a bullish reversal in prices.
价格向上,但指数向下暗示卖压积累,牛市反转。相反,价格向下,指数向上暗示买压积累,熊市反转。
ADL与OBV的对比:
OBV指数,是比较当前收盘价与前期收盘价的关系,收盘价增加,则指数升高,反之亦然。而ADL不在乎不同时间的收盘价比较,而是关心收盘价在当前时间段与最低、最高价的相对位置。所以,OBV指数增加的时候,ADL可能减少。举个例子如下图:
The Accumulation Distribution Line and On Balance Volume (OBV) are cumulative volume-based indicators that sometimes move in opposite directions because their basic formulas are different. Joe Granville developed On Balance Volume (OBV) as a cumulative measure of positive and negative volume flow. OBV adds a period's total volume when the close is up and subtracts it when the close is down. A cumulative total of this positive and negative volume flow forms the OBV line. This line can then be compared with the price chart of the underlying security to look for divergences or confirmation.
外汇技术分析121123——累积分布线Accumulation <wbr>Distribution <wbr>Line
As the formula above shows, Chaikin took a different approach by completely ignoring the change from one period to the next. Instead, the Accumulation Distribution Line focuses on the level of the close relative to the high-low range for a given period (day, week, month). With this formula, a security could gap down and close significantly lower, but the Accumulation Distribution Line would rise if the close were above the midpoint of the high-low range. The chart above shows Clorox (CLX) with a big gap down and a close near the top of the day's high-low range. OBV moved sharply lower because the close was below the prior close. The Accumulation Distribution Line moved higher because the close was near the high of the day.
用法
(1)趋势确认Trend confirmation :
Trend confirmation is a pretty straight-forward concept. An uptrend in the Accumulation Distribution Line reinforces an uptrend on the price chart and visa versa. The chart below shows Freeport McMoran (FCX) and the Accumulation Distribution Line advancing in February-March, declining from April to June and then advancing from July to January. The Accumulation Distribution Line confirmed each of these price trends. 
曲线与价格走势基本吻合,说明了趋势确认的相对合理性。
外汇技术分析121123——累积分布线Accumulation <wbr>Distribution <wbr>Line

(2)背离:
Bullish and bearish divergences are where it starts getting interesting. A bullish divergence forms when price moves to new lows, but the Accumulation Distribution Line does not confirm these lows and moves higher. A rising Accumulation Distribution Line shows, well, accumulation. Think of this as basically stealth【秘密行动】 buying pressure. Based on the theory that volume precedes price, chartists should be on alert for a bullish reversal on the price chart.
熊市背离:价格创新低,但指数增加,表明买压在积累。也可以理解为偷偷的买入。这时要警惕牛市的到来。
举例如下图:
The chart above shows Nordstrom (JWN) with the Accumulation Distribution Line. Notice how it is easy to compare price action when the indicator is placed "behind" the price plot. The indicator (pink) and the price trend moved in unison from February to June. Signs of accumulation emerged as the indicator bottomed in early July and started moving higher. JWN moved to a new low in late August. Even though the indicator showed signs of buying pressure, it was important to wait for a bullish catalyst or confirmation on the price chart. This catalyst came as the stock gapped up and surged on big volume. 图中绿色箭头处,指数有限见底回升。而蓝色箭头处,价格才见底。这时成交量优先于价格理论的体现。
外汇技术分析121123——累积分布线Accumulation <wbr>Distribution <wbr>Line

相反,熊市背离的情况是,价格创新高,但指数降低。
A bearish divergence forms when price moves to new highs, but the Accumulation Distribution Line does not confirm and moves lower. This shows distribution or underlying selling pressure that can foreshadow a bearish reversal on the price chart. 如下图
外汇技术分析121123——累积分布线Accumulation <wbr>Distribution <wbr>Line
The chart above shows Southwest Airlines (LUV) with the Accumulation Distribution Line peaking two months ahead of prices. The indicator not only peaked, but it also moved lower in March and April, which reflected some selling pressure. LUV confirmed weakness with a support break on the price chart and RSI moved below 40 shortly afterwards. RSI often trades in bull zones (40-80) and bear zones (20-60). RSI held in the bull zone until early May and then moved into a bear zone.
【如何结合RSI使用?】
(3)Disconnect with Prices 【这时提醒,ADL可能造成误导】
The Accumulation Distribution Line is an indicator based on a derivative of price and volume. This makes it at least two steps removed from the actual price of the underlying security. 【没理解?】
Moreover, the Money Flow Multiplier does not take into account price changes from period to period. 
指数没有考虑不同时期的相对变化,也会导致无法正确给出信号的情形。
As such, it cannot be expected to always affirm price action or successfully predict price reversals with divergences. Sometimes there is a, gasp, disconnect between prices and the indicator. Sometimes the Accumulation Distribution Line simply doesn't work. This is why it vitally important to use the Accumulation Distribution Line, and all indicators for that matter, in conjunction with price/trend analysis and/or other indicators.
有一个很严重误判的例子,如下图:
外汇技术分析121123——累积分布线Accumulation <wbr>Distribution <wbr>Line

结论
The Accumulation Distribution Line can be used to gauge the general flow of volume. An uptrend indicates that buying pressure is prevailing on a regular basis, while a downtrend indicates that selling pressure is prevailing. Bullish and bearish divergences serve as alerts for a potential reversal on the price chart. As with all indicators, it is important to use the Accumulation Distribution Line in conjunction with other aspects of technical analysis, such as momentum oscil


最后编辑于:2015-07-19 13:37

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