“剪刀-石头-布”的终极攻略,想赢就得看这里!

发表于:2014-05-08 11:24 [只看楼主] [划词开启]

R: Rock 石头

P: Paper 布

S: Scissors 剪刀


想必大家都是从小就玩“剪刀-石头-布”这个游戏,由此决定胜负。可是玩了这么多年,有谁能必胜?今天就看熊熊来教你必杀绝招!


如果你玩过这个游戏,你就会猜想最可能打败你的对手(opponent)的策略(strategy)。有许多游戏博弈者也曾长时间地努力思考(puzzle over),希望找到这个和其他类似游戏的最终解决办法。

If you’ve ever played Rock-Paper-Scissors, you’ll have wondered about the strategy that is most likely to beat your opponent. And you’re not alone. Game theorists have long puzzled over this and other similar games in the hope of finding the ultimate approach.


一般认为,这个游戏最好的策略就是随机(at random)出“剪刀”、“石头”、“布”。从长期来看(over the long run),这样能使获胜(win)、平局(tie)和输(lose)的概率接近相等。这个战术被称作“混合战略纳什均衡(the mixed strategy Nash equilibrium)”,在每一轮中,每一个选手选择三个动作的可能性相等。

It is generally considered that the best strategy is to choose your weapon at random. Over the long run, that makes it equally likely that you will win, tie, or lose. This is known as the mixed strategy Nash equilibrium in which every player chooses the three actions with equal probability in each round.


浙江大学的王志坚和他的几个朋友(pals)表示,这个游戏没我们想的那么简单。他们的试验表明,这个游戏的真正玩家看起来随机平均,但是事实上包括了预测的模式(predictable patterns),这个预测是狡猾的(wily)对手可以利用(exploit)来获得至关重要的优势(edge)。

Today, Zhijian Wang at Zhejiang University in China and a couple of pals say that there is more to Rock-Paper-Scissors than anyone imagined. Their work shows that the strategy of real players looks random on average but actually consists of predictable patterns that a wily opponent could exploit to gain a vital edge.


事实上,“赢保持,输转换”的策略从心理学的角度来看(from a psychological point of view)貌似合理(plausible):人们总是倾向于(tend to)坚持(stick with)一个成功的策略。

In fact, a “win-stay, lose-shift” strategy is entirely plausible from a psychological point of view: people tend to stick with a winning strategy.


同时,“赢保持,输转换”是目前为止最有效的打败对手的办法。补充:“输转换”的方法是按照一定的顺序,例如“石头-剪刀-布”,总是按照这个顺序来转换。


怎么样?你还想做那个总是输的人吗?


分类: 沪粉杂谈
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