2014.07.06【英译汉】Ukraine and Russia乌克兰和俄罗斯 War by any other name(二)

ydyinglluk (Erin) 译坛新秀
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发表于:2014-07-06 12:24 [只看楼主] [划词开启]

For his part, Mr Putin appears, at least for now, to have ruled out a full-frontal invasion. On June 24th he theatrically instructed the ever-loyal upper house of parliament to cancel the authorisation for military force inUkrainethat he had ordered up in early March. The move was largely an empty fob to Mr Poroshenko and another way to ward off more Western sanctions. Yet even if a tanks-and-soldiers invasion seems unlikely, a Russian invasion of another sort began long ago: one that resembles the slippery, post-modern war described by Mr Surkov.

一边,普京总统则看起来已经排除了全面入侵的可能,至少现在看起来是如此。六月二十四日,他戏剧般的指示曾经高高在上的俄罗斯上议院取消乌克兰地区军队的授权,此前三月初,他命令军队开赴此地。而对于波罗科夫来说这只不过是一张空头支票,这只是为了摆脱更多西方制裁的伎俩罢了。然而即使荷枪实弹的入侵看起来已经不太可能,另一种方式的俄式入侵早就已经开始;这就是苏可夫口中的那种狡猾的后现代战争。

The nature of the incursion speaks volumes for the reach of the Russian state under Mr Putin. Today’sRussiathinks of itself as a mobilisation state, ready to deploy a full array of instruments in a crisis. In Ukrainethis means a policy that combines covert arms transfers, volunteer fighters called up by patriotic organisations, oligarchs and others, propaganda produced by state-run media, punitive arm-twisting over gas prices and a worsening of political repression at home. Officials inMoscow, who have taken to praising non-linear war even if they do not use the precise term, say they are wielding the same tools the Americans use all the time: first engineer protests, and if that doesn’t work, back them up by force.

入侵的本质有力解释了普京治理下俄罗斯的扩张。今天,俄罗斯动员了全国之力,并已经迫不及待的想要在这场危机中横插一脚。在乌克兰这意味着一种策略,这种策略裹挟着地下军火贸易,爱国主义组织号召下的自愿反抗者,寡头集团和其他人,国家官方媒体的政治宣传,以及在天然气价格上惩罚性的军事交锋还有日益严重的国内政治压迫。对非线形战争表示赞赏的莫斯科官员,尽管没有使用这个术语,仍然称他们使用的只是美国人惯用的伎俩:先是工程师抗议,如果不奏效,就动武。

The advantage of such an approach is “plausible deniability,” explains Dmitry Gorenburg of CNA Corporation, a policy and security think-tank. Above all, it helpsRussiato avoid a new round of American and European sanctions, which would aim not just at individuals but at entire industries. Existing sanctions and the fears of more to come have already had a “chilling effect” on investment, according to the IMF, which now says that Russian GDP growth will be zero this year. The murkiness and obfuscation of Mr Putin’s non-linear war inUkrainealso complicate Western diplomacy, dividing opinion and making it harder to find consensus.

这种方式的优势,在于存在着“合理拒绝的可能性”政策安全智库CAN公司的德米特里·戈伦伯格解释道。毕竟,这种方式使得俄国避免了美国和欧洲的新一轮制裁,因为这种制裁不仅仅是针对个人,而会影响到各行各业。据IMF的数据显示,已经实施的制裁和对未来更多制裁的担忧已经对投资领域产生了冷却效应,今年俄罗斯GDP的增长可能停滞。普京总统对乌克兰发起的的非线形战争错综复杂也使得西方外交形势更为纠结,意见分歧使得观点更难统一。

What Mr Putin would really like is a conflict of just the right size: big enough to force Mr Poroshenko into concessions but not so large it dragsRussiain directly or forces it to subsidiseUkraine’s eastern regions. As Mr Gorenburg explains, Mr Putin will facilitate the transfer of Russian arms, fighters and money so as to ensure that “the insurgency isn’t defeated, but while doing the minimum possible”.

普京真正希望的是一场尺度合理的冲突:这场冲突的规模既要大到足以迫使波罗申科做出让步,但也不至于大直接将俄罗斯拖入泥潭,使它不得不参与到平息乌克兰东部地区事态之中。就像戈伦伯格所说,普京会加速俄国武器、飞机以及资金的输入,从而保证“这场叛乱不被镇压,与此同时也尽量减少自己干预的力度。

Mr Putin’s apparent interest in an on-again, off-again cycle of ceasefires and negotiations suggests that he would like to lock the conflict in place, legitimising the so-called people’s republics inDonetskand Luhansk and raising the profile of these rebel commanders ready to take orders fromMoscow. Such a war—oscillating between open fighting and political talks, but without ever being completely resolved—would resemble other frozen conflicts around the formerSovietUnion. In Abkhazia,South Ossetiaand Transdniestria, unsettled but largely bloodless conflicts serve to constrain the Georgian and Moldovan governments as well as providing a built-in lever for Russian meddling.

普京在断断续续犹豫不决的停火谈判中获得的明显利益,显示了他可能更愿意将冲突控制在当地范围内,并让顿内次克和卢甘斯克所谓的人民共和国合法化,并且提升这些叛乱军的首脑形象,以便他们能更愿意听从莫斯科的发号施令。这种摇摆在公开开火和政治谈判之间,但是从未被完全解决的战争,这与前苏联地区的其它冷冲突极其相似。在阿布哈兹,南奥赛迪,德涅斯特,尽管并不常见流血冲突但是这些地区却并不平静,这些冲突的爆发成为了格鲁吉亚和摩尔多瓦政府的掣肘,同时也为俄罗斯进行干预嵌进了一根杠杆。

最后编辑于:2014-07-06 22:27
分类: 英语
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