2014.07.06【英译汉】Ukraine and Russia乌克兰和俄罗斯 War by any other name(三)

ydyinglluk (Erin) 译坛新秀
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发表于:2014-07-06 12:39 [只看楼主] [划词开启]

Mr Putin may welcome something similar in eastern Ukraine. But those earlier conflicts differ in one important aspect: they are based on genuine, deeply felt ethnic and religious cleavages. Although plenty of Russian-speakers inDonetskand Luhansk resentKievand would like more autonomy, such Balkan-like divisions do not really exist inUkraine.

在乌克兰东部,普京希望也是如此。但是之前发生的冲突与这一次有所不同,而这恰恰是很重要的一方面:以前的那些冲突,是建立在真实而深刻的种族和宗教鸿沟之上的。尽管在顿内次克和卢甘斯克,许多说着俄语的人对基辅的乌克兰政府心怀怨怼,他们也想要更多的自治权,然而那种巴尔干半岛式的分歧并没有在乌克兰真正生根。

A more likely outcome is warlordism, or the rise of authorities who rely for their position not on ideology but on “force and patronage,” explains Kimberly Marten atColumbiauniversity. Warlords, Ms Marten says, use violence and bribery to exert control over territory and money flows—the sort of informal politics thatMoscowknows well. In conflict zones like easternUkraine, those who enjoy access to resources naturally see their influence rise. The Kremlin’s preferred intermediaries—men like Alexander Borodai, a Russian public-relations manager and political consultant who is now prime minister ofDonetsk’s “people’s republic”—have become ever more prominent.

最有可能出现的结局,是军阀主义的产生,或者是官僚的兴起,那些人并不是依靠意识形态来保住自己的位子,而是依靠“军队和金主”,哥伦比亚大学的金伯利·马顿解释道。马顿说,军阀使用武力和贿赂来攫取国家权力和金钱流动,这种非正式的政治向来为莫斯科所熟悉。在像乌克兰东部这样的冲突地带,那些既得利益群体自然能看见自己的影响力的扩大。那些克里姆林宫青睐的调解人,就更有平步青云之势,比如俄罗斯公共关系管理人和政策咨询师压力山大·波罗达,现任顿涅茨克人民共和国的总理。

The question for Mr Putin is how far he is willing to go if Ukrainian forces seem to be gaining the upper hand over the rebels. In a pure military contestKievis likely to prevail, given enough time. “Even just standing still will requireRussiato put in more resources,” says Mark Galeotti ofNew YorkUniversity. Mr Putin may not be able to avoid this. Igor Korotchenko, a military analyst and editor who is close to the defence ministry, argues thatRussiashould step up its support to anti-Kiev forces following the precedent ofAmerica’s support toSyria’s rebels.

普京总统的问题在于,如果乌克兰政府武装渐渐占据上风,他将何去何从?从纯军事角度考虑,只要花的时间足够多,基辅政府军很可能会胜利。“哪怕俄罗斯只是坐守旁观,他们也得投入更多的资源,”纽约大学的马克·加里蒂尔说道。普京也没办法避免这一局面的发生。与国防部门保持密切联系的军事分析师和编辑伊戈尔·科罗琴科称,俄罗斯方面将继续支持反政府武装,这不过是以美国对叙利亚叛乱事件的处理为榜样罢了。

The question for the West is how much of an appetite it has for tougher measures. The recent cycle of threats of more sanctions, followed by meek postponements, does not bode well.

而西方世界的问题在于它们对于实施更为强硬措施的问题上胃口有多大。随着最近一轮增加制裁措施的威胁不断被延迟,乌克兰局势仍不明朗。

(这都是个啥。。靠。。看着以为挺简单的。。翻到中间才知道自己有多zuo。。求鞭打。。)

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最后编辑于:2014-07-06 22:25
分类: 英语
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