2014.07.29【中译英】“中国自杀率陡降”让人惊异(2)

shuanghuasdo (熊猫JOY/酱油)
【A+研究所】荣誉会员☆网校制霸
路人甲
46 8 0
发表于:2014-07-30 01:04 [只看楼主] [划词开启]

接上篇:2014.07.07【中译英】“中国自杀率陡降”让人惊异(1)


现实是,1999年以后,中国官方再也没有正式公布过自杀率数据。现有的WHO(世界卫生组织)数据中,依然是1999年由当时卫生部所提交的中国人死因调查中的数据。而这个数据为男性每10万人自杀率13.0,女性14.8,平均13.9。

In fact, Chinese official has never released the suicide rate statistics to the public since 1999. Today, the WHO(World Health Organization) statistics for the suicide rate in China - male suicide rate: 13.0 per 100,000 people, female: 14.8 per 100,000 people, average: 13.9 per 100,000 people - were handed in by the Ministry of Health in 1999 from their survey on the causes of death in China. 
  
奇怪的是,在2000年一个学术会议中,前卫生部部长殷大奎承认,中国在1995至1999年之间的平均自杀率,实际上应该是22人/10万人。而这一数据远远高于卫生部提交给WHO的年度报告数据。
But in 2000, the former minister of the Ministry of Health Dakui Yin admitted in an academic conference that on average, there were 22 suicide deaths per 100,000 people in the population from 1995 to 1999 in China, which is far beyond data given to the WHO.

要想完备地统计一个国家民众的自杀率,需要具备完善的普遍覆盖的公民死因统计系统,而中国并不具备。因此,由当时卫生部提交给WHO的数据,来自于两个抽样系统,一个是卫生部主管的死亡登记系统,覆盖人口大约为1亿。另一个为中国疾病控制预防中心疾病监测点(DSP)的抽样网络,覆盖人口约1000万。
Complete suicide statistics rely on a comprehensive cause-of-death survey system covering all citizens, which we don’t have in China. Therefore, the statistics submitted to the WHO came from two sampling systems. One is the death registration system under the Ministry of Health, which covers around 100 million people in the population. Another is the sampling network belonging to the Disease Surveillance Points System (DSP) under Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. This covers around 10 million people.
 
特别需要注意的是,13.9的这个数据的样本,来自于21个省,36个市,85个县。WHO在注释中特别注明“样本中57%为城市人口”。这就带来了一个非常大问题,如果中国的自杀率农村大于城市(这是学界没有任何分歧的认识),而城市化率又不足(1999年中国的城市化率只有22%),那么样本中57%为城市人口,带来的结果自然是自杀率的失真。
It deserves a special mention that the sample from which the rate 13.9 is derived from involves 21 provinces, 36 cities and 85 counties. WHO mentioned “57% are city populations” in particular. So if the suicide rate in rural areas in China is higher than that in cities (which is widely acknowledged in the academy), the urbanization rate, however, is low (22% in 1999), how could we get reliable statistics from that. 

未完待续...
字数:459
最后编辑于:2014-07-30 15:03
分类: 英语
全部回复 (8) 回复 反向排序

  • 0

    点赞

  • 收藏

  • 扫一扫分享朋友圈

    二维码

  • 分享

课程推荐

需要先加入社团哦

编辑标签

最多可添加10个标签,不同标签用英文逗号分开

保存

编辑官方标签

最多可添加10个官方标签,不同标签用英文逗号分开

保存
知道了

复制到我的社团