2014.05.19【英译中】若银行股疲软,道琼斯多久才能抵御感染?(上)

发表于:2014-05-19 13:45 [只看楼主] [划词开启]

If bank stocks seem ill, how long can the Dow resist infection?

若银行股疲软,道琼斯多久才能抵御感染?


By Michael Santoli


Big bank stocks have been sickly in recent months, often a symptom of a less-than-healthy market – one in need of a prolonged rest at minimum, or a more intense selloff that would allow the fever to break.

The action in bank stocks is a long-trusted vital sign used to gauge the broad condition of the stock market. Yet in the chop-around nervous trading range of recent months, they haven’t received much attention.


最近几个月大型银行股一直疲软,总是表现出亚健康市场的状态,至少需要长期休整或进行更猛烈的抛售来打破现今的状态。

银行股的表现一向是估量整个股市情况至关重要的风向标。然而在最近几个月的令人紧张的交易价格范围中,它们并未得到足够的关注。


The KBW Bank Index (^BKX) is off about 8% from its early-April high, and the performance of its most widely tracked members has been worse still. Bank of America Corp. (BAC) has lost 19.5% since a January high, while Citigroup Inc. (C) is down more than 15%. JP Morgan Chase Co. (JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group (GS) are both off around 13%. The only stalwart action is in Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), hovering just below its all-time high near $50.

 

KBW银行指数从四月初的高位下跌大约8%,其最受瞩目的成员的表现更为糟糕(好像翻成无法直视怎么破!)。美国银行(BAC)从一月份的高位下跌19.5%,同时花旗集团(C)下跌超过15%。摩根大通(JPM)和高盛集团(GS)双双下跌13%左右。唯一坚挺的富国银行(WFC),徘徊于其历史高位50美元附近。



The sharp correction in the Russell 2000 small-cap index, the downside gut check in hyper-growth tech names and the jarring compression in Treasury yields have all been obsessed over as signs of risk aversion and rising doubts about the broadly predicted global economic acceleration.


罗素2000小型股指的大幅调整,高速增长的科技公司的下行评估及不和谐地收紧国债,全部都引起关注成了厌恶风险的标志并增强了对全球经济加速预测的疑虑。


The pronounced weakness in the banks is of a piece with these worries. Banks sit at the nexus of economic growth expectations, housing activity, loan demand, credit conditions, financial stability and investor risk appetites – thus, their bellwether status.


银行明显疲软的表现与这些忧虑紧密相连。银行联系着经济增长预期、购房行为、贷款需求、信贷条件、金融稳定和投资者风险偏好,这成就了他们的领头羊地位。


A 'market cautious' time

“市场谨慎”时间


Agreeing that there “hasn’t been much discussion of weakening bank charts,” Chris Verrone, technical market analyst at Strategas Group, says, “I do think the flatter curve has something to do with it. But nonetheless, it is one more item that keeps me ‘market cautious’ as we push into the weaker seasonal period.”


和大家的观点一致,Strategas集团技术市场分析师Chris Verrone说“并未就疲软的银行图标进行讨论。我不认为这与平直曲线有什么关系。但无论如何,它是另一个让我持“市场谨慎”态度的原因,因为我们推进了下跌的季节性周期。”

 

The “flatter curve” refers to the narrowing of the gap between short- and long-term Treasury yields, resulting from the surprising rally in Treasuries that has pulled 10-year yields down to 2.5% from 3% early this year. While there are various plausible, and not all troubling, reasons for the sag in yields, the flatter curve directly saps bank profits and often signals a tempering of growth expectations.


“平直曲线”是指缩小短期和长期国债间的收益差距,由于国债惊人的反弹导致10年期收益率从今年年初的3%跌至2.5%。虽然有各种貌似合理的理由也并非都是困扰,追究国债下跌的原因,平直曲线直接削弱了银行的利益并显示出了增长预期回调的信号。

最后编辑于:2014-05-19 13:49
分类: 英语
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