2014.05.26【英译汉】A question of trust(2/3)

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发表于:2014-05-26 18:41 [只看楼主] [划词开启]

2014.05.25【英译汉】A question of trust(1/3)


Market forces
China’s capital markets have been shaken by a series of similar events in recent months. In January another shadow bank, China Credit Trust, announced that a product through which it had raised 3 billion yuan, China Credit Equals Gold #1, was on the verge of default. It, too, was based exclusively on loans to a coalmining group operating in Liulin county, Zhenfu Energy, and had also been distributed by a reputable firm, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China—the country’s largest bank. In March a solar-panel manufacturer named Chaori missed a payment on a bond it had issued, the first such default in recent history. Shortly afterwards Li Keqiang, China’s prime minister, said further defaults were inevitable, in keeping with the Communist Party’s pledge last year to give the markets a “decisive” role in allocating capital.
市场力量
中国的资本市场在近几个月被一再发生的类似事件撼动。一月份另一家影子银行:中诚信托宣布其发售的一款产品,已经募集30亿元人民币的中诚等价黄金1号,处 于违约的边缘。这一产品同样是完全基于一家矿业集团的的贷款——即柳林县运营的振富能源。这款产品由一家信誉十足的机构分销,正是中国最大的银行:中国工商银行。三月份,超日太阳能电池板的制造商错过了偿付它发行的一款债券,这是史上首次公司债券违约。不久总理李克强表示说进一步的违约不可避免,这与 CCP去年表示要让市场在资本配置中起到“决定性”的作用这一承诺不谋而合。

That is an alarming prospect for many. Overall lending in China has grown at a breakneck pace in recent years (see chart 8), though precise numbers are hard to come by. The central bank put the total at the end of last year at about 200% of GDP, but its figures, confusingly, include a small amount of share issuance. Standard Chartered, a bank, using a more refined measure that includes various forms of borrowing left out by the central bank, such as loans from foreign sources, but excludes equity, has come up with a figure of 231% of GDP, including foreign debts.
对于多数人来说前景已拉响警报。最近几年中国 整体贷款以极快的速度增长,不过确切的数字却难以得见。央行在去年年底的投放总量约为GDP的200% ,不过这个数字虚虚实实,因为还包括一小部分股票发行量。渣打银行运用更为精确的方法,计算出包括被央行忽略的各种形式的贷款(例如国外贷款)、但不包括 股票,得到GDP的231%这一数字(包含外债)。

Not unexpectedly, the fastest-growing source of credit has been China’s shadow-banking system. Again, estimates of its size vary, in part because there is no agreement on what forms of lending should be included. But financial institutions other than banks accounted for almost half of credit growth in China last year. Most concerns focus on one particular sort of financial institution: trusts, the source of Liansheng and Zhenfu Energy’s loans, which swelled from 3 trillion yuan at the end of 2010 to almost 11 trillion (roughly 20% of GDP) at the end of last year.
意料之中的是,增长最快的信贷 来源一直就是中国影子银行系统。外界在预测这一系统的规模方面则再次无法一致,部分原因是无法界定何种形式的贷款应纳入其中。不过去年中国除了银行以外的 金融机构占信贷增长的近一半。集万千宠爱的则是一类特殊的金融机构:信托。联盛和振富能源的贷款来源于信托,从2010年底的3万亿元人民币猛增到去年年底近11万亿人民币(约占GDP的20% )。

Trusts have grown very quickly in part because the central bank has limited banks’ lending to parts of the economy where it saw signs of overinvestment, including coalmining and property. Firms developing mines or apartment complexes often had few other places to turn to. At the same time the central bank caps interest on deposits, severely crimping Chinese savers’ return on their nest-eggs. Straightforward savings accounts produce no more than 0.35% a year and a one-year fixed deposit earns at most 3.3%. That makes trust products, with advertised yields of around 10%, enormously alluring.
信托增长如此迅猛的部分原因是央行限制了银行对经济的某些部分进行贷款,央行在煤炭开采和房地产行业看到了投资过热的迹象,而矿业发展公司或房产公司所能求 助的机构少之又少。与此同时,央行封顶了存款利息,严重压制了中国储户的储备金回报。短期储蓄账户的年利率不超过0.35%,一年期定期存款利率最多为3.3% 。这使得信托产品,推销词中号称(年化收益率)达到约10%,极具诱惑性。

Liansheng Group and Zhenfu Energy are unlikely to be the trust sector’s only struggling borrowers. Trusts have lent money to lots of other mining firms. Property, another wobbly industry, accounts for perhaps 10% of total trust lending, and local governments, many of which have borrowed to invest in overblown infrastructure projects, for an even bigger share. At the same time growth in China’s economy is slowing: the past two years’ 7.7% annual rise was the lowest since 1999. Banks’ write-offs of bad debt, although still tiny at about 1% of lending, have doubled in the past year.
联盛集团和振富能源不可能是中国信托业的唯一垂死挣扎的借款人。信托基金已给众多其他矿业公司借款。而房地产则是另一种摇摇欲坠之景象,占到总信托贷款的10%。此外还有许多地方政府,向信托基金借款用于投资那些华而不实的基础设施项目,占据贷款总额的更大份额。而此 时此刻中国的经济增速正在放缓:过去两年间增速为7.7 %,为1999年以来最低点。银行核销的坏账,数量虽然微小,仅占贷款总量的1%左右,不过去年还是翻了一番。

最后编辑于:2014-10-30 15:20
分类: 英语
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